TECHNOLOGY

Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?

Updated moments ago

Source: Polymarket public market data. Prices and probabilities can change rapidly; availability and update timing vary. Historical movement does not guarantee future movement. Signals are informational, not guaranteed trading opportunities.

About this information

PROGY provides informational analytics and AI-generated explanations about prediction markets. Content may be incomplete, inaccurate, delayed or based on uncertain information. PROGY is not a betting platform and does not execute trades. Content is not financial, investment, legal or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, trade or participate in a market. Predictions and market probabilities are uncertain and do not guarantee future outcomes. You are responsible for your decisions and should independently verify important information.

PROGY INTELLIGENCE

AI explanations for this market are available to signed-in users.

97%

WHAT CHANGED

No significant movement over the last hour (97% → 97%, 0.0 PP).

HOW IT DEVELOPED

98%

96% · 09:56 AM10:48 AM

YES

WHAT CHANGED

No significant movement over the last hour (3% → 3%, 0.0 PP).

HOW IT DEVELOPED

2% · 09:56 AM10:48 AM

SIGNAL HISTORY

No significant signals yet.

PROGY is monitoring the market and will show meaningful movements here.

ABOUT THIS MARKET

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.

STATUS: OPEN
VOLUME: $5.5M
LIQUIDITY: $64.9K