ECONOMY

Will Trump raise tariffs on Canada by October 31?

Updated 18 h ago

Source: Polymarket public market data. Prices and probabilities can change rapidly; availability and update timing vary. Historical movement does not guarantee future movement. Signals are informational, not guaranteed trading opportunities.

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YES

82%

WHAT CHANGED

Building history — not enough historical data yet for the last hour.

HOW IT DEVELOPED

BUILDING HISTORY

Not enough historical data yet.

18%

WHAT CHANGED

Building history — not enough historical data yet for the last hour.

HOW IT DEVELOPED

BUILDING HISTORY

Not enough historical data yet.

SIGNAL HISTORY

No significant signals yet.

PROGY is monitoring the market and will show meaningful movements here.

ABOUT THIS MARKET

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump, the White House, or any Cabinet member publicly and officially announces a tariff increase on Canada between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any tariff increase which is officially announced within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of if/when the change goes into effect. The announced replacement of an existing tariff with a tariff of a higher rate will qualify, but the replacement of an existing tariff with a tariff of an equal or lower rate will not qualify. The announced imposition of a relevant new tariff at any rate will also qualify. A qualifying announcement must be made by Donald Trump, through an official White House publication or communication, or by a White House official authorized to speak on behalf of Donald Trump or the White House, including members of the Cabinet. A global/blanket tariff on all imports which does not specifically name Canada will not qualify. Announcements, notices, publications, or actions issued solely by federal departments or agencies, including U.S. Customs and Border Protection, the Department of Commerce, the Office of the United States Trade Representative, or the U.S. International Trade Commission, do not qualify on their own, unless they are announced by members of the Presidential Cabinet. This includes updates or amendments to the Harmonized Tariff Schedule, customs rulings, implementation guidance, changes to product coverage or exclusions, and antidumping or countervailing duty determinations. Such agency-level actions do not qualify merely because they implement or exercise authority delegated by Donald Trump or the White House. The relevant tariff change must itself be the subject of a qualifying announcement by Donald Trump or the White House within the market's time frame. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the U.S. government's present implementatio

STATUS: OPEN
VOLUME: $10.5K
LIQUIDITY: $495.9