Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut in the top 20 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?

Updated 2 h ago

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PROGY INTELLIGENCE

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YES

48%

WHAT CHANGED

Building history — not enough historical data yet for the last hour.

HOW IT DEVELOPED

BUILDING HISTORY

Not enough historical data yet.

52%

WHAT CHANGED

Building history — not enough historical data yet for the last hour.

HOW IT DEVELOPED

BUILDING HISTORY

Not enough historical data yet.

SIGNAL HISTORY

No significant signals yet.

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ABOUT THIS MARKET

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next OpenAI GPT Astra model (6.1+) added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) holds a rank within the specified top ranks when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be an OpenAI model designated as version 6.1 or higher that includes "Astra" in its name or model identifier, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, GPT-6.1 Astra, Astra 6.1, or GPT Astra 7 would all qualify. GPT-6 Astra, including any rollout, promotion, Pro or Fast mode, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Tier-labeled models such as GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-5.6 Luna and their successors, and task-specific or modality lines such as GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak models, Codex, GPT Image, or Realtime models, will not qualify. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None), in the "Models" view, and with no other filters applied will be used to resolve this market. A model debuts within the specified top ranks if its displayed rank at the check time is equal to or better than the specified rank (for example, a displayed rank of 4 is within the top 5 and the top 10). This market will resolve solely based on the specified rank in the Rank column of the leaderboard, regardless of the model's score, rank spread or confidence intervals, ranks shown under other adjustments, filters, or categories, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. A model marked "AutoEval" will not be considered added to the leaderboard. A model is considered to first appear on the leaderboard on the first calendar date (ET) on which it is d

STATUS: OPEN
VOLUME: $16.4K
LIQUIDITY: $611.2