AI bubble burst in 2026?

Updated moments ago

Source: Polymarket public market data. Prices and probabilities can change rapidly; availability and update timing vary. Historical movement does not guarantee future movement. Signals are informational, not guaranteed trading opportunities.

About this information

PROGY provides informational analytics and AI-generated explanations about prediction markets. Content may be incomplete, inaccurate, delayed or based on uncertain information. PROGY is not a betting platform and does not execute trades. Content is not financial, investment, legal or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, trade or participate in a market. Predictions and market probabilities are uncertain and do not guarantee future outcomes. You are responsible for your decisions and should independently verify important information.

PROGY INTELLIGENCE

AI explanations for this market are available to signed-in users.

YES

WHAT CHANGED

No significant movement over the last hour (9% → 9%, 0.0 PP).

HOW IT DEVELOPED

10%

8% · 09:56 AM10:48 AM

92%

WHAT CHANGED

No significant movement over the last hour (92% → 92%, 0.0 PP).

HOW IT DEVELOPED

93%

91% · 09:56 AM10:48 AM

SIGNAL HISTORY

24H · Yes · 6% → 9%
+3.0 PPLOWNov 2, 11:41 AM
24H · No · 94% → 91%
-3.0 PPLOWNov 2, 11:41 AM
1H · Yes · 10% → 8%
-2.2 PPLOWNov 2, 10:19 AM
1H · No · 90% → 93%
+2.2 PPLOWNov 2, 10:19 AM
5M · No · 91% → 90%
-1.1 PPLOWOct 30, 06:39 PM
5M · Yes · 9% → 10%
+1.1 PPLOWOct 30, 06:39 PM

ABOUT THIS MARKET

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe: - NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high. - iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high. - OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy. - OpenAI, Inc. is acquired. - H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at: https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index. - Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high. This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe. This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims. The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

STATUS: OPEN
VOLUME: $2.5M
LIQUIDITY: $25.1K